Thai Buddhist Monks Struggle to Stay Relevant


Giulio Di Sturco for the International Herald Tribune


Young monks rehearsed an evening candlelight ceremony at Wat Chedi Luang in Chiang Mai, Thailand. More Photos »







BAAN PA CHI, Thailand — The monks of this northern Thai village no longer perform one of the defining rituals of Buddhism, the early-morning walk through the community to collect food. Instead, the temple’s abbot dials a local restaurant and has takeout delivered.




“Most of the time, I stay inside,” said the abbot, Phra Nipan Marawichayo, who is one of only two monks living in what was once a thriving temple. “Values have changed with time.”


The gilded roofs of Buddhist temples are as much a part of Thailand’s landscape as rice paddies and palm trees. The temples were once the heart of village life, serving as meeting places, guesthouses and community centers. But many have become little more than ornaments of the past, marginalized by a shortage of monks and an increasingly secular society.


“Consumerism is now the Thai religion,” said Phra Paisan Visalo, one of the country’s most respected monks. “In the past, people went to temple on every holy day. Now, they go to shopping malls.”


The meditative lifestyle of the monkhood offers little allure to the iPhone generation. The number of monks and novices relative to the population has fallen by more than half over the last three decades. There are five monks and novices for every 1,000 people today, compared with 11 in 1980, when governments began keeping nationwide records.


Although it is still relatively rare for temples to close, many districts are so short on monks that abbots here in northern Thailand recruit across the border from impoverished Myanmar, where monasteries are overflowing with novices.


Many societies have witnessed a gradual shift from the sacred toward the profane as they have modernized. What is striking in Thailand is the compressed time frame, a vertiginous pace of change brought on by the country’s rapid economic rise. In a relatively short time, the local Buddhist monk has gone from being a moral authority, teacher and community leader fulfilling important spiritual and secular roles to someone whose job is often limited to presiding over periodic ceremonies.


Phra Anil Sakya, the assistant secretary to the Supreme Patriarch of Thailand, the country’s governing body of Buddhism, said that Thai Buddhism needed “new packaging” to match the country’s fast-paced lifestyle. (Phra is the honorific title for monks in Thailand.)


“People today love high-speed things,” he said in an interview. “We didn’t have instant noodles in the past, but now people love them. For the sake of presentation, we have to change the way we teach Buddhism and make it easy and digestible like instant noodles.”


He says Buddhist leaders should make Buddhism more relevant by emphasizing the importance of meditation as a salve for stressful urban lifestyles. The teaching of Buddhism, or dharma, does not need to be tethered to the temple, he said.


“You can get dharma in department stores, or even over the Internet,” he said.


But Phra Paisan is markedly more pessimistic about what is sometimes called “fast-food Buddhism.” He is encouraged by the embrace of meditation among many affluent Thais and the healthy sales of Buddhist books, but he sees basic incompatibilities between modern life and Buddhism.


His life is a portrait of traditional Buddhist asceticism. He lives in a remote part of central Thailand in a stilt house on a lake, connected to the shore by a rickety wooden bridge. He has no furniture, sleeps on the floor and is surrounded by books. He requested that a reporter meet him for an interview at 6 a.m., before he led his fellow monks in prayer, when mist on the lake was still evaporating.


Monks are suffering a decline in “quantity and quality,” he said, partly because young people are drawn to the riches and fast-paced life of the cities. The monastic education of young boys, once widespread in rural areas, has been almost entirely replaced by the secular education provided by the state.


Poypiti Amatatham contributed reporting from Bangkok.



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Nielsen to buy Arbitron for about $1.26B






NEW YORK (AP) — Nielsen, the dominant source of TV ratings, on Tuesday said it had agreed to buy Arbitron for about $ 1.26 billion to expand into radio measurement.


Arbitron pays 70,000 people to carry around gadgets that register what stations they’re listening to. Since Nielsen also collects cash register data, CEO David Calhoun said buying Arbitron will let Nielsen be a one-stop shop for advertisers who want to know how the radio advertising they buy affects product sales.






The acquisition will let Nielsen expand the amount of media consumption it tracks by about 2 hours per person per day to 7 hours, Calhoun said in an interview.


“You don’t find many mediums that allow for that kind of increase,” Calhoun said.


Arbitron’s operations are mainly in the U.S., while Nielsen operates globally. Calhoun said another major driver for the deal is that Nielsen wants to spread Arbitron’s tracking technology to other countries.


Evercore Partners analyst Douglas Arthur said Nielsen doesn’t need traditional radio measurement to grow, but Arbitron seemed like a willing seller, and it will be a “nice complementary but not ‘must have’ platform.”


Nielsen Holdings N.V. said it will pay $ 48 per share, which is a 26 percent premium to Arbitron’s Monday closing price of $ 38.04. Shares of Arbitron, which is based in Columbia, Md., jumped $ 8.99, or 23.6 percent, to close at $ 47.03.


Nielsen, which went public in January 2011, has headquarters in the Netherlands and New York. Its stock added $ 1.30, or 4.4 percent, to close at $ 30.92.


Nielsen said it expects the deal to add about 13 cents per share to its adjusted earnings a year after closing and about 19 cents per share to adjusted earnings two years after closing.


Abitron’s chief operating officer, Sean Creamer, is set to take over as CEO from William Kerr on Jan. 1. Calhoun said he hoped Creamer would remain with Nielsen after the deal closes.


Nielsen said it has a financing commitment for the transaction.


Nielsen was the prime source of audience ratings in the early days of radio, thanks to a device similar to Arbitron’s People Meter. The Audimeter was attached to the radio set. The company’s focus shifted to TV measurement in the 1950s.


On Monday, Nielsen announced a deal with Twitter to measure how much U.S. TV watchers tweet about the shows they’re watching. The “Nielsen Twitter TV Rating” will debut in the fall.


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The Voice Crowns a Winner!















12/18/2012 at 11:20 PM EST







From left: Terry McDermott, Cassadee Pope, Nicholas David and host Carson Daly


Tyler Golden/NBC


The Voice has a new winner!

After several powerful performances the night before, the top three singers – Nicholas David (of Team Cee Lo) and Terry McDermott and Cassadee Pope (of Blake Shelton's team) – faced the music on Tuesday during the final results show of season 3.

Which one was the winner? Keep reading to find out ...

Cassadee Pope was named the winner of The Voice!

Pope thanked her fans who supported her throughout the competition. She was joined onstage by McDermott, who was the runner-up, and David, who came in third place.

It was a night of music as Rihanna, newly engaged Kelly Clarkson, Bruno Mars and the Killers celebrated with the finalists by displaying their talents.

Season 4 of The Voice premieres March 25, 2013, with Shakira and Usher stepping in to take over for Christina Aguilera and Cee Lo Green.

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Experts: Kids are resilient in coping with trauma


WASHINGTON (AP) — They might not want to talk about the gunshots or the screams. But their toys might start getting into imaginary shootouts.


Last week's school shooting in Connecticut raises the question: What will be the psychological fallout for the children who survived?


For people of any age, regaining a sense of security after surviving violence can take a long time. They're at risk for lingering anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder.


But after the grief and fear fades, psychiatrists say most of Newtown's young survivors probably will cope without long-term emotional problems.


"Kids do tend to be highly resilient," said Dr. Matthew Biel, chief of child and adolescent psychiatry at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital.


And one way that younger children try to make sense of trauma is through play. Youngsters may pull out action figures or stuffed animals and re-enact what they witnessed, perhaps multiple times.


"That's the way they gain mastery over a situation that's overwhelming," Biel explained, saying it becomes a concern only if the child is clearly distressed while playing.


Nor is it unusual for children to chase each other playing cops-and-robbers, but now parents might see some also pretending they're dead, added Dr. Melissa Brymer of the UCLA-Duke National Center for Child Traumatic Stress.


Among the challenges will be spotting which children are struggling enough that they may need professional help.


Newtown's tragedy is particularly heart-wrenching because of what such young children grappled with — like the six first-graders who apparently had to run past their teacher's body to escape to safety.


There's little scientific research specifically on PTSD, post-traumatic stress disorder, in children exposed to a burst of violence, and even less to tell if a younger child will have a harder time healing than an older one.


Overall, scientists say studies of natural disasters and wars suggest most children eventually recover from traumatic experiences while a smaller proportion develop long-term disorders such as PTSD. Brymer says in her studies of school shootings, that fraction can range from 10 percent to a quarter of survivors, depending on what they actually experienced. A broader 2007 study found 13 percent of U.S. children exposed to different types of trauma reported some symptoms of PTSD, although less than 1 percent had enough for an official diagnosis.


Violence isn't all that rare in childhood. In many parts of the world — and in inner-city neighborhoods in the U.S., too — children witness it repeatedly. They don't become inured to it, Biel said, and more exposure means a greater chance of lasting psychological harm.


In Newtown, most at risk for longer-term problems are those who saw someone killed, said Dr. Carol North of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, who has researched survivors of mass shootings.


Friday's shootings were mostly in two classrooms of Sandy Hook Elementary School, which has about 450 students through fourth-grade.


But those who weren't as close to the danger may be at extra risk, too, if this wasn't their first trauma or they already had problems such as anxiety disorders that increase their vulnerability, she said.


Right after a traumatic event, it's normal to have nightmares or trouble sleeping, to stick close to loved ones, and to be nervous or moody, Biel said.


To help, parents will have to follow their child's lead. Grilling a child about a traumatic experience isn't good, he stressed. Some children will ask a lot of questions, seeking reassurance, he said. Others will be quiet, thinking about the experience and maybe drawing or writing about it, or acting it out at playtime. Younger children may regress, becoming clingy or having tantrums.


Before second grade, their brains also are at a developmental stage some refer to as magical thinking, when it's difficult to distinguish reality and fantasy. Parents may have to help them understand that a friend who died isn't in pain or lonely but also isn't coming back, Brymer said.


When problem behaviors or signs of distress continue for several weeks, Brymer says it's time for an evaluation by a counselor or pediatrician.


Besides a supportive family, what helps? North advises getting children back into routines, together with their friends, and easing them back into a school setting. Studies of survivors of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks found "the power of the support of the people who went through it with you is huge," she said.


Children as young as first-graders can benefit from cognitive-behavioral therapy, Georgetown's Biel said. They can calm themselves with breathing techniques. They also can learn to identify and label their feelings — anger, frustration, worry — and how to balance, say, a worried thought with a brave one.


Finally, avoid watching TV coverage of the shooting, as children may think it's happening all over again, Biel added. He found that children who watched the 9/11 clips of planes hitting the World Trade Center thought they were seeing dozens of separate attacks.


___


EDITOR'S NOTE — Lauran Neergaard covers health and medical issues for The Associated Press in Washington.


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Fix for flawed light rail junction in downtown L.A. is outlined









Local transit officials Tuesday outlined plans to permanently repair the flawed intersection of two light rail lines in downtown Los Angeles that had raised safety and maintenance concerns.


The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority asserts that the repair should prevent further problems at Washington Boulevard and Flower Street, the busiest junction in Metro's 87-mile rail network.


Officials plan to slightly narrow the width between the rails along 15 feet of track where the popular Blue Line curves to merge into the recently opened Expo Line before the route heads into the Metro Center station. About 32 trains an hour now pass through the intersection.





The fix is expected to eliminate excess play in the track that was causing train wheels to slam into a small section of the junction, resulting in excessive wear to wheel assemblies and a critical piece of the layout known as a "frog" that guides rail cars through a switch. According to an earlier Metro report, the flaw presented a risk of derailment on the Blue Line.


"It is safe now and we will keep it safe," said Frank Alejandro, Metro's chief operating officer. "That is our commitment to our customers and to our employees."


Officials for Metro and the Exposition Construction Authority, which built the Expo Line to the Westside, said the repair can be made during a weekend in the months ahead, minimizing service disruptions. When the work will begin and what it will cost have not been determined.


The repair is one of three options presented this month by ZetaTech, a New Jersey-based rail consulting firm hired by rail officials to analyze the junction.


According to the company's report, the problem was caused by a design that did not comply with standards put forth by the American Railway Engineering and Maintenance of Way Assn. Among other things, the width between rails was 4 feet, 9 inches, in parts of the junction where it should have been 4 feet, 8 1/2 inches.


The company also concluded that the junction has been safe since Metro made temporary modifications, began a stringent inspection program imposed by the California Public Utilities Commission and limited train speeds through the intersection to 5 mph. The Blue Line normally travels through the intersection at 10 mph, and Expo trains go through at 35 mph.


Michael Harris-Gifford, Metro's chief executive of wayside systems, said that two other solutions proposed by ZetaTech were not practical because they would reduce the number of trains and remove some traffic lanes.


The track alignment problem was first noticed in April 2010, when Metro officials discovered excessive wear and damage to wheel flanges and the pins that hold wheel assemblies to Blue Line cars. Internal agency reports state that the defect presented a potential risk of derailment in the junction or elsewhere on the Blue Line.


Trying to avoid the cost and service disruptions that would be required to replace flawed tracks, transit officials attempted to solve the problem by welding a bulb of metal to the frog and lengthening rail guides for train wheels. The weld, however, has had to be redone twice because of cracking.


In July, the utilities commission noted the failed welds and recommended that the damaged frog be replaced. Since then, Metro and Expo hired ZetaTech to help come up with a permanent solution. Once the repair is made, Harris-Gifford said, Metro and Expo officials plan to meet with the commission.


dan.weikel@latimes.com





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Pew Study Finds One in 6 Follows No Religion





A global study of religious adherence released on Tuesday by the Pew Research Center found that about one of every six people worldwide has no religious affiliation. This makes the “unaffiliated,” as the study calls them, the third-largest group worldwide, with 16 percent of the global population — about equal to Catholics.




The study also found a wide disparity in the median age of religious populations, with Muslims and Hindus the youngest, and Buddhists and Jews the oldest. The median age of the youngest group, Muslims, was 23, while the median for Jews was 36.


Over all, Christians (including Catholics) are the largest religious group, with 2.2 billion people, about 32 percent of the world’s population. They are followed by Muslims, with 1.6 billion, about 23 percent. There are about one billion Hindus, about 15 percent of the global population, and nearly half a billion Buddhists, about 7 percent.


The study, “The Global Religious Landscape,” is a snapshot of the size and distribution of religious groups as of 2010, and does not show trends over time.


“Something that may surprise a lot of people,” said Conrad Hackett, a primary researcher on the report, “is that the third-largest religious group, after Christians and Muslims, is the religiously unaffiliated. There may have been some guesses floating out there before, but this is the first time there are numbers based on survey data analyzed in a rigorous and scientific way.”


More than three-quarters of the religiously unaffiliated live in Asia, the majority in China. Many of the people in this group do hold some religious or spiritual beliefs and may even believe in a deity, but they do not identify with a particular faith.


People who practice folk or tribal religions, like African, Chinese, American Indian and Australian aboriginal traditional religions, make up another 6 percent of the world’s population. Smaller faith groups — like Bahais, Jains, Sikhs, Shintoists, Taoists, Wiccans and Zoroastrians — combined make up less than one percent of the global population. Jews, with about 14 million, make up only 0.2 percent of the global population.


The study is based on analysis of 2,500 different data sources, including censuses and demographic surveys of children and adults in 232 countries. It relies on self-identification, so it includes people who are not regular practitioners or orthodox believers of the religion they claim.


The religious groups with the youngest median ages have the highest levels of fertility and poverty and the lowest levels of female education, Jack A. Goldstone, director of the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University, in Virginia, said in an interview by e-mail. He noted that in predominantly Muslim countries where the government supports the education of women and girls, like Tunisia, Iran and Indonesia, the median age is higher than for Muslims in Africa and the Middle East.


The study also shows that about one-fourth of the world’s population lives in countries where they are a religious minority. But 97 percent of Hindus and 87 percent of Christians live in countries where they are the majority faith, said Alan Cooperman, associate director for research at the Pew Forum.


“Christians are the most evenly dispersed — except in one place, and that’s the Middle East and North Africa, which happens to be the place where Christianity originated,” Mr. Cooperman said.


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The Voice's Top Three Give Final Performances in the Competition






The Voice










12/17/2012 at 10:25 PM EST







From left: Judges Adam Levine, Cee Lo Green, Christina Aguilera and Blake Shelton


Trae Patton/NBC


Monday night's episode of The Voice gave the final three contestants three chances to earn fans' votes. Each singer revisited a "breakout" song that set them apart in the competition, sang a new song and performed a duet with his or her coach.

But the night opened with a touching tribute to the victims of the Sandy Hook tragedy. Coaches and singers held up the names of each life lost while singing Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah."

Team Cee Lo's Nicholas David then kicked off the competition with Jerry Lee Lewis's "Great Balls of Fire." Not able to resist a pun, his coach chimed in on his performance: "Your fire tonight burned this house down," Green said. David later revisited his performance of Bill Withers's "Lean On Me," and joined Green for a duet of Wild Cherry's "Play That Funky Music."

Team Blake's two contestants also had the crowd cheering. Terry McDermott's sang his best song, Foreigner's "I Want to Know What Love Is," and took a stab at Mr. Mister's "Take These Broken Wings." But the crowning moment of the night for McDermott was his duet with Shelton of Aerosmith's "Dude (Looks Like a Lady)." Adam Levine played guitar alongside them, decked out in a long rocker wig.

Cassadee Pope sang "Over You," which her coach and his wife, Miranda Lambert, co-wrote. She received huge praise for singing it the first time, but the song about Shelton's late brother had special meaning in the wake of the shootings in Newtown, Conn. "America's heart is heavy, and that's about healing," Shelton said. She also moved the coaches with her take on Faith Hill's "Cry." "I don't care that you weren't on my team," Levine said. "I am so proud of you and so happy that you're here at this moment." Pope finished the night with Shelton for a duet of Sheryl Crow's "Steve McQueen."

The Voice returns Tuesday, when the season's winner will be named. Who will it be? Tell us in the comments below.

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Experts: No link between Asperger's, violence


NEW YORK (AP) — While an official has said that the 20-year-old gunman in the Connecticut school shooting had Asperger's syndrome, experts say there is no connection between the disorder and violence.


Asperger's is a mild form of autism often characterized by social awkwardness.


"There really is no clear association between Asperger's and violent behavior," said psychologist Elizabeth Laugeson, an assistant clinical professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.


Little is known about Adam Lanza, identified by police as the shooter in the Friday massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school. He fatally shot his mother before going to the school and killing 20 young children, six adults and himself, authorities said.


A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the unfolding investigation, said Lanza had been diagnosed with Asperger's.


High school classmates and others have described him as bright but painfully shy, anxious and a loner. Those kinds of symptoms are consistent with Asperger's, said psychologist Eric Butter of Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, who treats autism, including Asperger's, but has no knowledge of Lanza's case.


Research suggests people with autism do have a higher rate of aggressive behavior — outbursts, shoving or pushing or angry shouting — than the general population, he said.


"But we are not talking about the kind of planned and intentional type of violence we have seen at Newtown," he said in an email.


"These types of tragedies have occurred at the hands of individuals with many different types of personalities and psychological profiles," he added.


Autism is a developmental disorder that can range from mild to severe. Asperger's generally is thought of as a mild form. Both autism and Asperger's can be characterized by poor social skills, repetitive behavior or interests and problems communicating. Unlike classic autism, Asperger's does not typically involve delays in mental development or speech.


Experts say those with autism and related disorders are sometimes diagnosed with other mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder.


"I think it's far more likely that what happened may have more to do with some other kind of mental health condition like depression or anxiety rather than Asperger's," Laugeson said.


She said those with Asperger's tend to focus on rules and be very law-abiding.


"There's something more to this," she said. "We just don't know what that is yet."


After much debate, the term Asperger's is being dropped from the diagnostic manual used by the nation's psychiatrists. In changes approved earlier this month, Asperger's will be incorporated under the umbrella term "autism spectrum disorder" for all the ranges of autism.


__


AP Writer Matt Apuzzo contributed to this report.


___


Online:


Asperger's information: http://1.usa.gov/3tGSp5


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Exec linked to Jenni Rivera plane was sued by a San Jose band









In the wake of the plane crash that killed Latina pop singer and reality show star Jenni Rivera, attention quickly turned to the company that owned the plane and an executive at the firm with a long history of brushes with thelaw.


It's not the first time Christian E. Esquino Nuñez has been embroiled in a controversy involving high-profile entertainers and a plane.


Los Tigres del Norte, a San Jose-based norteño band originally from the Mexican state of Sinaloa, rose to international fame with its accordion-laced ballads portraying life on the border, including homages to drug traffickers. In 2001, the group sued Esquino over an airplane sale gone awry.





The band planned to buy an airplane from Esquino "to meet the needs of their extensive performance travel," according to a statement released through a spokesman for the group.


The group put down a $400,000 deposit after agreeing to pay about $6 million for a Gulfstream Model G-11SP airplane, according to court documents. A document outlining the agreement also specified that the band would be allowed to use a "comparable aircraft for charter purposes" until the sale was complete.


But after Esquino delivered the plane, the band said the aircraft did not live up to the contract and demanded its deposit back. When Esquino refused, the band sued for breach of contract and fraud. Esquino countersued, arguing that the band owed him more than $600,000 for the flights it took before deciding not to go through with the sale.


After a lengthy battle, Esquino agreed in 2005 to give the band $200,000, but never paid up. Esquino said in a telephone interview that he had agreed to the judgment "basically to get them off my back." At the time, he was preparing to serve a prison sentence for conspiring with associates to falsify records documenting the history of planes they bought and sold. After serving two years, he was deported to Mexico.


The lawsuit complaint by Los Tigres del Norte did not specify what was wrong with the airplane that Esquino attempted to sell the band, other than to say that it "did not meet the specifications set forth in the Agreement, the proposed purchase price was not as set forth in the Agreement, and the proposed aircraft was otherwise unacceptable to the Plaintiff."


A person with knowledge of the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for Los Tigres del Norte, said the plane delivered was not the same one the band had been testing and was "in pretty shoddy shape," and band members were worried that it was unsafe.


Esquino disputed those accusations.


"Everybody now is going to say they have safety concerns about everything they did with me," he said. "In essence, there was absolutely nothing wrong with that airplane. We ended up selling it later to someone else, and it flew fine and never had a problem."


Esquino told The Times that at the time of the fatal crash, Rivera had been in the final stages of buying the Learjet 25 she was riding in for $250,000. The plane belonged to Las Vegas-based Starwood Management, a company associated with Esquino, although his position in the company is unclear.


Nevada employment records list his sister-in-lawas the company's sole corporate officer. Esquino described himself as the company's operations manager. A lawsuit filed in October by an insurance company described Esquino as the "alter ego" of Starwood and said he had signed numerous documents on the company's behalf.


Federal Aviation Administration records show that Starwood Management did not have proper certification to carry paying passengers. Esquino said Rivera's flight was a free test demo, which would not require such certification, and that the company did not carry passengers for hire.


Esquino and Starwood are also the subject of an ongoing investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration, which seized two of the company's planes in the last year, one in Texas and one in Arizona. A DEA spokeswoman said she could not disclose details of the probe because it is ongoing.


Authorities continue to investigate the cause of the plane crash that killed the pop star and six others in a remote, mountainous area in Mexico.


Born in Long Beach, Rivera began her music career as a teenage mother selling records at a swap meet, but went on to build an empire, selling millions of CDs and starring in the popular bilingual cable reality show "I Love Jenni." She was preparing to make her American network television debut at the time of her death.


The Rivera family announced plans to hold a public memorial service — which they termed a "Celestial Graduation" — from 10 a.m. to noon Wednesday at the Gibson Amphitheatre at Universal CityWalk. A private burial will be held separately.


abby.sewell@latimes.com


Times staff writers Meg James, Dan Weikel and Tony Perry contributed to this report.





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Egypt Votes on Constitution; Muslim Brotherhood Expects Approval





CAIRO — Supporters and opponents of President Mohamed Morsi sparred on Sunday over the preliminary results of a referendum on a draft constitution, which Egyptians moved toward approving in voting marked by long lines but low voter turnout.




The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group that supports Mr. Morsi, said that around 57 percent of those who cast ballots in the first round on Saturday voted in favor of the proposed constitution, whose drafting was dominated by Islamists. The figure was based on unofficial tallies. A second round of voting is scheduled for this Saturday in rural areas, where the draft constitution is likely to win stronger support.


While the Brotherhood hailed the “political maturity” of voters, opposition leaders disputed the unofficial results and said the voting was marred by irregularities. Each side sought to frame the results as favorable.


Although many people here predicted that the charter would be approved, the turnout was just 31 percent, according the Brotherhood’s estimates. That immediately raised doubts about whether a document intended to express a consensus on Egypt’s identity and lay the foundation of a new government had won legitimacy in the referendum.


Some also said that the low turnout and relatively narrow approval margin dented assumptions about the strength of the Brotherhood, whose extensive grass-roots network had yielded a string of electoral victories since President Hosni Mubarak was toppled in February 2011.


Some Brotherhood officials seemed surprised by the results. “It’s certainly below a lot of expectations,” said Gehad el-Haddad, a senior Brotherhood official. He and others said the polarizing political fight between Mr. Morsi’s supporters and opponents was to blame, causing a broad disillusion with politics and prompting what Mr. Haddad called Egypt’s “silent majority” to stay home.


Still, he argued that the high proportion of “no” votes came not from a rejection of the draft constitution, but rather from anger — justified or otherwise — at the Brotherhood.


“The evaluation was not on the product,” he said. “It was on the producers.”


Resentment against the Brotherhood grew in recent weeks after Mr. Morsi issued a decree insulating his decisions from judicial scrutiny and then hastily called a referendum on the constitution. Many Egyptians also blamed the Brotherhood for deadly clashes outside the presidential palace two weeks ago.


The voting on Saturday was largely peaceful, a respite after weeks of turmoil and a toxic political debate over the constitution.


The arguments started again on Sunday. A coalition of human rights groups called for a revote, saying there were thousands of complaints of violations at the polls and inadequate supervision by judges. The Brotherhood-sponsored Freedom and Justice Party also cited allegations of misbehavior by opponents at polling places, but said that in general the voting was a success. The Egyptian election commission said it would release official results after the second round.


Some opposition figures were hailing the results of the referendum as a small victory for non-Islamist political groups. Amr Hamzawy, the founder of the liberal Free Egypt Party, asserted in a message on Twitter that the relative closeness of the outcome ended the notion that the Brotherhood was unbeatable at the polls. “Saying that democratic currents have no popularity, and that the Brotherhood and their allies monopolize popular will and have the license of the boxes fell yesterday, once and for all,” Mr. Hamzawy wrote.


But analysts said that the voting had left an uncertain landscape. A much better showing for the draft constitution in the next round would probably strengthen Mr. Morsi’s hand. But if current voting patterns continue, Mr. Morsi would just as surely face steep challenges in governing. The Brotherhood could also be seen as more vulnerable in parliamentary elections due after the constitution is adopted.


Mr. Morsi’s problems could start with the charter itself. If it passes narrowly with only about one-third of eligible voters turning out, the document would have legal legitimacy, “but it’s difficult to argue it would have popular legitimacy,” said Zaid al-Ali, who has tracked Egypt’s constitution-writing process for the International Institute for Democratic and Electoral Assistance, based in Sweden. “Politically, it will be a hot potato for a long time to come,” he said.


Many countries require that constitutional referendums exceed a minimum turnout threshold to be valid, out of a belief that the fundamental nature of constitutions means that they must command broad popular support.


Some members of Egypt’s constitutional assembly seemed to agree in principle. Mr. Ali said that several members had told him that they would not be satisfied unless half of eligible voters — not just half of those casting ballots — registered approval. One member was quoted in state news media saying a two-thirds majority in favor was needed for legitimacy. But no such requirements were imposed.


A narrow outcome would oblige the president to “spend a large proportion of his time defending its legitimacy, rather than discussing specific policies,” Mr. Ali said.


Some saw the voting as a referendum not just on the charter, but also on the president’s record after five months in office. “I read this as a strong vote against the dismal, confused performance of the Morsi administration,” said Emad Shahin, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo, about the low turnout and high proportion of “no” votes. Of the president’s Islamist allies, Mr. Shahin said, “I think they thought they were on their way to really secure some kind of comfortable majority for the constitution, which did not happen.”


Whether that assessment is borne out remains to be seen. But Mr. Shahin said that the results so far already showed the need for Mr. Morsi to change his approach to his opponents, who have faulted him for failing to build consensus around contentious decisions. He said that Mr. Morsi’s government needed a transformation of “mentality”: from a state run by the Muslim Brotherhood to a “state that runs an entire country with its all political and social segments.”


Mr. Shahin laid equal blame on the opposition, for resorting to obstructionism rather than compromise at crucial junctures. He called some of the opposition leaders “irresponsible” and said they had engaged in a “massive campaign of disinformation” about the constitution, aided by segments of the news media.


Late on Sunday, opposition leaders signaled that they intended to keep the pressure on Mr. Morsi, calling simultaneously for a large protest on Tuesday, for voters to turn out heavily in the second round next Saturday and for the election commission to consider voiding the first round because of the irregularities.


David D. Kirkpatrick contributed reporting.



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